Owner and Appraiser Opinions of Home Values Inch Closer To Equilibrium

Staff Report

Wednesday, March 14th, 2018

The trend of home value opinions from appraisers and owners moving ever-closer together resumed in February, after taking a step back the previous month. The National Quicken Loans Home Price Perception Index showed appraisal values in February were an average of 0.53 percent below homeowner estimates. This is the fifth consecutive month the gap between the two values has been less than 1 percent.

Home appraisal values were nearly flat in February, posting a 0.07 percent dip from January, according the National Quicken Loans Home Value Index. Appraisal values jumped 6.37 percent compared to February 2017, which is a smaller annual increase than in January, when values were 7.03 percent higher than the previous year.

Home Price Perception Index

Appraisals continue to fall short of owner expectations, however, the difference between the two data points is shrinking. The Quicken Loans HPPI reported appraiser opinions of home values were an average of 0.53 percent lower than what owners expected, at a national level. Bucking the national trend, more than three quarters of metro areas measured have appraisal values that are higher than owner estimates. The leader among them is Dallas, with appraisals an average of 2.72 percent higher than expected.

"The Home Price Perception Index is a perfect example of how localized housing is across the country," said Bill Banfield, Quicken Loans Executive Vice President of Capital Markets. "The fact that appraisals are showing home values nearly three percent higher than expected in Dallas, but the average appraisal is lower than the owner estimates by almost 2 percent in Philadelphia, illustrates this to a tee. Dallas is an incredibly hot housing market right now and appraisers are seeing just how fast home values are climbing. When shopping for a home, or even refinancing a current mortgage, consumers should always keep the changes in their local market in mind before estimating a home's value."  

Home Value Index

The Quicken Loans HVI reported that annual home equity continued its ascent in February, but the pace slowed slightly. Appraisal values increased 6.37 percent compared to February 2017, despite a monthly decrease of just 0.07 percent. The West was the only region with a monthly drop in home values, showing a 1.87 percent decrease from January to February. On the other hand, the Midwest had the largest gain in year-over-year home value growth, showing a 7.23 percent jump from February 2017.   

"With little movement in the HVI data from January to February, it's clear the same narrative from the beginning of the year remains," said Banfield. "Low home inventory continues to be a drag on the housing market. As the economy grows and more consumers are in the right place financially to purchase a home, the high demand is driving prices up. As we move into the spring selling season, all eyes will be on whether today's strong economy can support the higher prices."    

 

HVI

February 2018

 

January 2005 =

100

HVI

February 2018

vs.

January 2018

% Change

HVI

February 2018

vs.

February 2017

% Change

HPPI

February 2018

 

Appraiser Value

vs. Homeowner

Perception of

Value*

HPPI

February 2017

 

Appraiser Value

vs. Homeowner

Perception of

Value*

National

Composite

106.19

-0.07%

+6.37%

-0.53%

-1.69%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value

represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

 

Geographic

Regions

 

HVI

February 2018

 

January 2005

= 100

HVI

February 2018

vs.

January 2018

% Change

HVI

February 2018

vs.

February 2017

% Change

HPPI

February 2018

 

Appraiser Value 

vs. Homeowner

Perception of

Value*

HPPI

February 2017

 

Appraiser Value

vs. Homeowner

Perception of

Value*

West

128.32

-1.87%

+6.99%

-0.32%

-1.46%

Midwest

87.9

+0.42%

+7.23%

-0.55%

-1.80%

South

108.04

+0.92%

+5.67%

-0.58%

-1.68%

Northeast

99.74

+0.44%

+5.44%

-0.68%

-1.85%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value

represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

 

Metropolitan

Areas

 

HPPI

February 2018

 

Appraiser Value

vs. Homeowner

Perception of

Value*

HPPI

January 2018

 

Appraiser Value

vs. Homeowner

Perception of

Value*

HPPI

February 2017

 

Appraiser Value

vs. Homeowner

Perception of

Value*

Dallas, TX

+2.72%

+2.83%

+2.05%

San Jose, CA

+2.71%

+2.58%

+0.64%

Denver, CO

+2.22%

+2.18%

+2.70%

Seattle, WA

+2.01%

+1.96%

+1.31%

Boston, MA

+2.00%

+1.90%

+1.05%

San Francisco, CA

+1.91%

+2.11%

+1.30%

San Diego, CA

+1.30%

+1.13%

+0.38%

Minneapolis, MN

+1.20%

+1.02%

+0.73%

Charlotte, NC

+1.18%

+1.07%

+0.85%

Portland, OR

+1.01%

+1.05%

+1.81%

Kansas City, MO

+0.94%

+0.80%

+0.49%

Sacramento, CA

+0.84%

+0.84%

+0.82%

Miami, FL

+0.83%

+0.75%

+0.32%

Los Angeles, CA

+0.81%

+0.93%

+1.10%

Riverside, CA

+0.75%

+0.54%

-0.05%

Las Vegas, NV

+0.58%

+0.60%

-0.39%

Phoenix, AZ

+0.47%

+0.59%

-0.59%

Detroit, MI

+0.43%

+0.41%

-1.36%

Tampa, FL

+0.42%

+0.44%

-1.33%

Washington, D.C.

+0.38%

+0.33%

-0.44%

New York, NY

+0.19%

+0.13%

-1.55%

Atlanta, GA

-0.07%

-0.09%

-0.94%

Houston, TX

-0.85%

-0.61%

+0.52%

Chicago, IL

-1.24%

-1.35%

-1.96%

Baltimore, MD

-1.46%

-1.53%

-3.01%

Cleveland, OH

-1.76%

-1.95%

-2.17%

Philadelphia, PA

-1.84%

-1.87%

-3.09%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value

represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.