Numerator, a data and tech company serving the market research space, has released the latest U.S. holiday sentiment study to understand the impact of the pandemic and vaccination status on upcoming summer holidays, and specifically, how people plan to celebrate, shop and spend for the Fourth of July. The sentiment survey of 2,000+ consumers shows the following key findings:

• Cumulatively, more than two-thirds of consumers (68%) expect a return to normalcy by the Fourth of July and 7 in 10 (71%) by Labor Day.

• 1 in 5 consumers (22%) are planning for the Fourth of July to be their first "normal" celebration in 2021.

• Optimism is high as vaccinations increase and states reopen. Nearly 2 in 5 consumers (39%) indicated elevated levels of excitement for Fourth of July 2021 compared to previous years. 1 in 10 (12%) say they are less excited compared to previous years.

• 2 in 5 consumers (41%) expect that COVID-19 will have no impact on their Fourth of July celebration plans. Nearly half (48%) expect there to be a slight impact, and 1 in 10 (11%) expect a significant impact.

Celebration size differs based on vaccination status: 

• Just under half (49%) of vaccinated individuals say they will celebrate normally, compared to nearly two-thirds (64%) of individuals who do not plan to get vaccinated.

• 6% of vaccinated individuals plan to have larger celebrations in 2021, compared to 10% of those who will not get the vaccine.

• Nearly half (45%) of vaccinated consumers will have smaller-scale celebrations, compared to a quarter (26%) of those who will not get the vaccine.

Celebration type also differs by vaccination status: 

• Consumers who do not plan to get vaccinated are more likely to partake in every celebration method than vaccinated consumers.

• The largest differences between vaccinated consumers and those not planning to get the vaccine were Watching Fireworks at a Public Location (21% of vaccinated consumers vs 32% of those who will not get the vaccine); Gathering with Family and Friends (56% vs 66%); and Attending Public Events or Festivals (8% vs 18%).

• Intention to travel for Fourth of July was nearly the same for both vaccinated (9%) and those not planning to get the vaccine (10%).

Fourth of July Celebration Plans: Vaccine Impacts
Percentage of Vaccinated Consumers & Consumers Who Will Not Get the Vaccine

Celebration plans also vary by geographic region:

• Among those planning to celebrate the Fourth of July, 3 in 5 (61%) of Midwest consumers plan to gather with friends or family, compared to half (51%) of consumers who live in the West.

• 60% of consumers in the Northeast say they will grill or barbecue, the largest percentage reported by any region.

• Consumers in the Midwest (15%) and South (13%) are the most likely to say they will attend public events or festivals this year.

• Despite being the least likely to partake in most other celebration methods, 11% of consumers in the West plan to travel for the Fourth of July, just behind those in the South (12%), but higher than both the Midwest (8%) and Northeast (7%).

Fourth of July Celebration Plans: Regional Impacts
Percentage of Consumers by US Geographical Region

The Numerator 2021 Q3 Holiday Survey was fielded on 6/4/2021 to 2,016 consumers.