Cloud Theory, the real-time automotive data insights provider for automotive manufacturers, agencies, and affiliates is reporting in March's On the Horizon that new vehicle inventory increased from February, but it is the sharp 28% month-over-month increase in vehicle movement that headlines this month's results.

After being range-bound between 0.94M and 1.10M for the last year, movement hit its highest level since May 2021, surging to 1.25M in March. While the April forecast is pointing to a dip to 1.20M, that figure will still be higher than recent boundaries.

The jump in vehicle movement resulted in a six-point gain in turn rate to 44%—the highest level since October 2023. Pricing, which had been on a downward slide for seven straight months, ticked up and surpassed $50,000 after falling below that benchmark in February.

"The marketplace has been in a state of growing supply but stable demand since the summer, so this represents a shift to where both are on an upward trajectory," said Rick Wainschel, Vice President, Data Science & Analytics at Cloud Theory. "Aggressive pricing and incentives in March were effective in bringing those two sides of the equation into better balance."

Cloud Theory's proprietary Inventory Efficiency Index did see some consequential dynamics play out in March, with Toyota growing its lead over #2 Honda and leading in all census regions. Additionally, BMW—which saw a 44% movement increase despite an inventory gain of just 6%—moved up four ranks, while Cadillac fell from third to eighth after its supply position jumped 25% and its movement gained but did not keep pace (+19%).

"Cadillac's drop shows how a brand can lose by gaining," said Ron Boe, Chief Revenue Officer at Cloud Theory. "The Inventory Efficiency Index is an effective measure because it does not look at a make in isolation, but instead puts it in its full competitive context."

To see more trends and forecasts on inventory, movement, segment trends, and inventory efficiency, download a copy of the April 2024 On the Horizon report here.