Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. Increases

Press release from the issuing company

Friday, August 23rd, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in July to 96.0 (2004 = 100), following no change in June, and a 0.3 percent increase in May.

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board: "Following moderate growth in the last few months, the U.S. LEI picked up in July, with widespread gains among its components. The pace of the LEI's growth over the last six months has nearly doubled, pointing to a gradually strengthening expansion through the end of the year. In July, average workweek in manufacturing was the weakest component."

Says Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board: "The improvement in the LEI, and pick up in the six-month growth rate, suggest better economic and job growth in the second half of 2013. However, the biggest uncertainties remain the pace of business spending and the impact of slower global growth on U.S. exports."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in July to 106.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in June, and a 0.3 percent increase in May.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) declined 0.2 percent in July to 118.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in June, and a 0.3 percent increase in May.

 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

 

2013

6-month

 

May

Jun

Jul

Jan to Jul

         

Leading index

95.4 r

95.4 r

96.0 p

 

     Percent Change

.3 r

.0

.6 p

2.0

     Diffusion

55.0

55.0

80.0

65.0

         

Coincident Index

106.0 r

106.1 r

106.3 p

 

     Percent Change

.3 r

.1 r

.2 p

1.6

     Diffusion

87.5

75.0

87.5

100.0

         

Lagging Index

118.2 r

118.4 r

118.2 p

 

     Percent Change

.3 r

.2 r

-.2 p

0.3

     Diffusion

64.3

64.3

21.4

21.4

         

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board