Private sector wage gains are expected to remain in a holding pattern in the coming months, according to the preliminary third-quarter Wage Trend Indicator (WTI) released today byBloomberg BNA, a leading publisher of specialized news and information.

The forward-looking index edged down slightly in the third quarter to 98.70 (second quarter 1976 = 100) from the second-quarter reading of 98.72. Since the third quarter of 2011, the WTI has fluctuated within a narrow range from 98.47 to 98.75.

"The job market continues to improve very slowly, although employers are still showing a reluctance to add significant numbers of workers to their payrolls," economist Kathryn Kobe, a consultant who maintains and helped develop Bloomberg BNA's WTI database, said.

Kobe said she expects the annual rate of wage gains in the private sector in the coming months to remain at or near the 1.9 percent increase posted in the second quarter, according to the Department of Labor's employment cost index (ECI). The WTI does not forecast the magnitude of wage growth, only the direction.

Over its history, the WTI has predicted a turning point in wage trends six to nine months before the trends are apparent in the ECI. A sustained increase in the WTI forecasts greater pressure to raise private sector wages, while a sustained decline is predictive of a deceleration in the rate of wage increases.

Reflecting mixed economic conditions, three of the WTI's seven components made positive contributions to the preliminary third quarter reading, while three factors were negative and one was neutral.