Leading Economic Index for China Increased Again in August

Tuesday, September 17th, 2013

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China increased 0.7 percent in August. The index stands at 269.3 (2004 = 100), following a 1.4 percent increase in July and a 0.8 percent increase in June. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in August.

Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: "The LEI increased in August, but its growth has slowed as real estate activity slumped markedly. While recent improvements in China's industry and retail sectors signal some stabilization in current conditions, the easing of the LEI's six-month growth rate, coupled with downside risks from the real estate sector, suggest the pace of economic growth will remain muted in the coming months."  

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.2 percent in August to 248.7 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent increase in July and a 1.1 percent increase in June. All five components contributed positively to the index in August.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.