We’re less than a month out from statewide elections that will determine Georgia’s leadership for the next four years. Regardless which party wins, there will be new people sworn in as Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General.  Those positions alone are enough to change the tone, tenor, and trajectory of the state before you factor in changes that will occur in the composition of the state legislature.

Candidates are mostly emphasizing what they will change. It’s equally important to understand where they will be starting from. 

Campaigns are fueled by vibes. Actual decisions made once winners are sworn in are rooted in data.

While the Tea Party has morphed into MAGA, the general sentiment of the right is that voters are Taxed Enough Already.  The left, meanwhile, likes to promised unlimited spending for virtually any and every cause, if only “the billionaires” would pay for it.

The reality is that most of the tax burden at the state level falls to the broadest section of the middle class. There are pledges to cut taxes. Both income and property taxes are frequently mentioned. Both present real expenses to everyday Georgians.

“Affordability” is the new buzzword to discuss inflation, that was off limits from most major news sources as an issue during the 2024 campaign cycle.  Now it’s among the top issues.

 Republicans want to point out that the rate of inflation was higher under President Biden. Democrats want voters to blame tariff policies and war with Iran as the reasons items cost more.  There’s evidence to support both side’s claims.

These are macroeconomic issues that bring voter angst into state elections. State leaders can’t fix the national and international economic issues nor monetary climate. They are responsible, however, for setting state policies that maximize the local economy’s potential, protect the quality of life, provide for a quality education, and provide for common infrastructure. 

All of these responsibilities which fall to state and local leaders cost money. They too have “affordability” issues. Inflation causes the cost of government to go up too. The goods government must buy – from construction materials to build roads, equipment for offices, cars for the State Patrol, and generally all other items the state buys costs a lot more than it did a decade ago.  Likewise, the salaries of those who work on behalf of us in government roles also increases with inflation to keep wages competitive. 

Voters noticing that a pound of ground beef can cost $9 or more are in no mood to be told the cost of government is also going up.  They want tax cuts. That’s natural.

It’s also natural to be told that you’re taxed too much.  Even the party that wants to increase taxes won’t tell their voters they want to tax THEM more. They just say someone else will pay.

That’s the rhetoric.  The Urban Institute gives us a place to start a real discussion with some facts. 

They compare all fifty states. They then combine all local and state government spending, and divide that by the state’s population. The result is the amount each state pays per capita for government services. Their most current data is compiled through 2023’s data.

In a prior report 2 years ago, Georgia was the state with the lowest cost of state and local government. The most current report shows spending increasing slightly faster than others, but Georgia still coming in with the 4^th lowest cost per person, at $9,960. 

The three states that beat Georgia are Tennessee ($9,221), Idaho (9,422), and Nevada ($9,514).  For comparison, other neighboring states in order of spending are Florida ($10,484), Alabama ($10,947), North Carolina ($10,955), and South Carolina (11,121).

A state many wish Georgia could emulate on tax policy, Texas, spends $10,777 per person. They fund this with oil extraction revenues Georgia doesn’t have, and roughly double the property taxes that Georgia’s local governments have, but the state does not.

Two states often the deserved targets for fiscal derision rank 48^th for California ($17,527) and 49^th for New York ($18,450).  The highest is somewhat of a structural anomaly, with Alaska having a very low population base over a very widely dispersed geography spending $20,472, with much of their burden also offset by oil extraction fees rather than personally paid taxes.

So Georgia is almost as lean as any other state, and a lot more efficient than the worst. But again, notice this is state AND local spending. The state has actually been actively rolling back income tax rates. State gas taxes no longer rise with the price of gasoline. The state no longer collects property taxes.

Quite a few Georgians are noticing local governments advertising hearings on increasing property taxes. Many of these entities are promoting millage rate rollbacks, despite the fact that increased tax assessments are increasing revenues to local governments.

Much of what the state collects flows directly back to local governments. Education Funds are chief among them, but many other programs have dedicated local government funding components. 

Legislators have grown tired of getting beaten up for the increasing cost of government, then watching local governments take their payouts and turn around and increase taxes through local assessments. 

The takeaway here today is likely going to be friction in January. Georgia remains lean, but the costs relative to other states is going up. Legislators will assert the blame lies with local commissions, councils, and school boards.