The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined by 0.4% in October 2024 to 99.5 (2016=100), following a 0.3% decline in September (revised up from a 0.5% decline). Over the six-month period between April and October 2024, the LEI fell by 2.2%, slightly more than its 2.0% decline over the previous six-month period (October 2023 to April 2024).

"The largest negative contributor to the LEI's decline came from manufacturer new orders, which remained weak in 11 out of 14 industries," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "In October, manufacturing hours worked fell by the most since December 2023, while unemployment insurance claims rose and building permits declined, partly reflecting the impact of hurricanes in the Southeast US. Additionally, the negative yield spread continued to weigh on the LEI. Apart from possible temporary impacts of hurricanes, the US LEI continued to suggest challenges to economic activity ahead."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the US was unchanged for a second month in a row at 112.8 (2016=100). The CEI increased by 0.8% in the six-month period ending October 2024, higher than its 0.5% growth rate over the previous six-month period. The CEI's component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Personal income less transfer payments and manufacturing and trade sales, which are estimates for October, contributed positively but were offset by the second consecutive decline in industrial production. Payroll employment was virtually unchanged.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index^® (LAG) for the US ticked down by 0.1% to 118.7 (2016=100) in October 2024, after a decline of 0.3% in September. The LAG's six-month growth rate was negative at 0.8% between April and October 2024, a partial reversal from a 1.2% increase over the six-month period from October 2023 to April 2024.

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, December 19, 2024, at 10 A.M. ET.