The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) edged down to 108.36 in October—a 0.1% m/m decline from an upwardly revised reading of 108.43 in September—but increased by 2.4% from a year ago. The ETI is a leading composite index for future payroll employment. When the Index increases, payroll employment may grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses might occur in the coming months.

"In October, nonfarm payrolls added 165,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%," said Conrad Qi, Economic Data Scientist Associate at The Conference Board. "Despite the minor m/m downtick in the ETI, the measure increased by 2.4% y/y in October, up from 1.9% y/y in September and -1.0% y/y in October 2025. The annual growth rate of the ETI has been edging higher over the last six months."

Three of the ETI's eight components contributed positively to the index in October. Ranked by the magnitude of their positive contribution, they were:

• Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, which rose to 36% from 32% in September, indicating demand for workers in small firms is rising;
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, which increased by 18,600 in October; and
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance.

Four of the ETI's eight components contributed negatively to the index in October. Ranked by the magnitude of their negative contribution, they were:

• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, which rose to 17.6% from 16.5% in September;
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, which fell by an estimated 0.3%;
• Job Openings, estimated to have decreased by 73,000 to 7.45 million; and
• Industrial Production, which edged down by 0.1%.

One of the ETI's eight components, Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find 'Jobs Hard to Get,' was unchanged in October.