S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the February 2025 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices recorded a 3.9% annual gain in February 2025, a slight decrease from the previous reading in January 2025. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.9% annual return for February, down from a 4.1% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 5.2%, down from a 5.4% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.5%, down from a 4.7% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.7% increase in February, followed by Chicago and Cleveland with annual increases of 7.0% and 6.6%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 1.5%

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices presented slight upward trends in February, posting 0.4%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices posted month-over-month increases of 0.5% and 0.4%. The U.S. National Composite Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.3%

ANALYSIS

"Even with mortgage rates remaining in the mid-6% range and affordability challenges lingering, home prices have shown notable resilience," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Buyer demand has certainly cooled compared to the frenzied pace of prior years, but limited housing supply continues to underpin prices in most markets. Rather than broad declines, we are seeing a slower, more sustainable pace of price growth."

The National Composite Index posted a 3.9% annual gain in February, down slightly from the previous month's reading. Much of the annual appreciation was frontloaded into the first half of the period, while the second half reflected a flatter performance, highlighting the broader cooling trend. The 20-City Composite rose 4.5% year-over-year, while the 10-City Composite gained 5.2%.

Regional trends remained divergent. New York led all markets with a 7.7% annual increase, followed by Chicago (7.0%) and Cleveland (6.6%). Tampa again posted the weakest performance, with prices declining 1.5% year-over-year. Markets that had previously experienced rapid appreciation, particularly in the Sun Belt, continue to adjust as higher financing costs and affordability constraints weigh more heavily on buyer demand.

On a month-over-month basis, February saw a broad-based rebound. Seventeen of the 20 metro areas posted positive monthly price gains, reversing recent seasonal weakness. San Francisco (+1.8%), Seattle (+1.6%), and Los Angeles (+1.5%) led all markets in monthly growth. Only Tampa (-0.3%), Miami (-0.3%), and Charlotte (essentially flat) recorded monthly declines or no change. Nationally, the U.S. National Composite rose 0.4% from January before seasonal adjustment and 0.3% after adjustment.

Affordability remains a key pressure point. Mortgage rates, while off their peaks, continue to hover in the mid-6% range, keeping monthly payment burdens historically elevated relative to incomes. However, persistent supply shortages — particularly among existing homeowners reluctant to part with low pandemic-era mortgage rates — continue to offset softer demand, supporting a gradual upward trend in home prices.

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

Table 2 below summarizes the results for February 2025. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji.